Weekly Election Update: What can we Learn from these Polls?

Despite recent sad news, at Kalpi, we do our best to avoid writing about the conflict. This is because most people have made up their minds on the subject and it’s hard to gage its exact effect on elections before elections are set. So onward we go knowing that this is not quite the foremost issue now.

  • Let’s take a deep dive on the polls since Avi Gabai was elected to be the head of the Labor party. There have been five majors since the primaries. Here they are in chronological order.
Party (current) Pre Gabbai Average Poll 1 Poll 2 Poll 3 Poll 4 Poll 5
Likud (30) 24.5 25 29 29 25 24
Zionist Union (24) 10.6 20 24 19 19 19
Joint Arab List (13) 13 13 8 11 12 11
Yesh Atid (11) 24 18 16 21 21 22
Kulanu (10) 6.3 8 6 8 7 9
HaBayit HaYehudi (8) 12.3 13 14 10 12 13
Shas (7) 6.3 5 5 4 5 5
UTJ(6) 7 7 6 9 8 7
Yisrael Beitenu (6) 7 6 7 4 6 5
Meretz (5) 6 5 5 5 5 5

 

  • The two polls taken right after Gabbai won the party showed a major swing that died down in later polls.
  • The Likud’s low mark is 24, even with a Prime Minister caught in a scandal that doesn’t seem to be going away.
  • The Zionist Union is alive again! Gabbai seems to be getting a consistent 19, not far off from challenging the Likud. It turns out that bringing someone in from the government to lead the party was the right move
  • Yesh Atid survived Labor primaries with most of their surge intact.
  • Kulanu has yet to pull centrist voters away from Yesh Atid despite Kahlon being the face of tax breaks to the middle class. Therefore, it is unlikely that they’ll break the coalition now
  • HaBayit HaYehudi is pulling voters from the Likud and will be stronger in the next Knesset. This also means that they have motivation to collapse the coalition. United Torah Judaism also seems to be getting a slight bump from the polls and with a possible upcoming large decision related to gay couples could get a reason to break the coalition.
  • Yisrael Beitenu and the United Arab List are both losing seats for some reason. Shas is losing seats because Aryeh Deri is caught up in scandal again.

Totally precise and not arbitrary election date: February 20, 2018

Winner: Likud

Runner Up: Yesh Atid (Check out this Yair Lapid left-right dance move. “We are sovereign over the Temple Mount! No one tells us what to do…We need to talk with Jordan and the Waqf about what to do”. If the man dances as well as he kickboxes, he’ll be OK)

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